Today is      Íđ╬─░Š | English  
About us Conception Mission Product Successful case Download Job opportunity Contact us


Unicom controversial telecommunications network users value of C Super 40 billion for fear of adverse Telecom

Sourceú║SohuIT
    China Unicom's CDMA users value calculation is becoming a China Telecom launched its acquisition of a major obstacle to negotiations, analysts believe that if all registered users to calculate the value of the user, C net worth will therefore be overestimated.

    2007, China Unicom annual operating revenue for 100.47 billion, of which 63.54 billion for the network G, C network for 27.59 billion, while long-distance and Internet business for 4.35 billion.

    On the number of users, G network users to 120 million, C network users to 42 million. Spread outside news, China Unicom's CDMA network as a whole, shown in the initial offer 120 billion yuan, but China Telecom was given the Price for 50 to 60 billion yuan around. The analysis of the various agencies here are the C net valuation of the multi-billion 800-1200 in between, which includes the net assets of the CDMA network and CDMA users compensation value.

    "There is 80 billion or 120 billion, the key is to look at what proportion of users accounted for. At present, China Telecom and China Unicom in the calculation of the net on the basic differences do not exist, and in the differences between the user great value." Country of the Securities Analysts said Chen Yun-hong.

    Chen Yun-hong said, C net net assets belong to the SAC, there are significant differences between the two sides, the right to direct allocation of the SAC, while the value of belonging to China Telecom, China Netcom on the compensatory costs, requires both sides to a negotiated solution At the same time, the value of compensation, should be vested in Unicom after the reorganization of listed companies, rather than company.

    At present, the assessment of customer value, mainly to China Unicom's existing network users C, based on the value of customer ARPU, grade and type of customer, to pay costs, customer credit, and many other elements of analysis and evaluation, their Customer Value be measured.

    "However, the present value is difficult to calculate clear, in the process of acquisition of C network, if only to China Unicom, the number of registered C network, will be due to sleep households, ultra-low calls households and businesses a single households, households in arrears calls , And other invalid, the existence of the China Telecom network because of the value of C Xugao, and the payment should not pay for the acquisition cost. "Chen Yun-hong warned that.

    Chen Yun-hong that if compensation in the value of 300-400 billion, China Telecom have the ability to pay, if more than 40 billion, China Telecom will be in the market rating, the stock market performance and earnings per share in the year-end, there are some risks.

    Chen Yun-hong further pointed out that from the acquisition of links, if China Telecom to pay China Unicom's CDMA business value too high, is the loss of state assets.

    -- On the reorganization of many aspects of telecommunications issues, the State Securities analyst Chen Yun-hong accepted an exclusive interview with the Sohu IT, the following is the full text of interview:

    Sohu IT: Everyone is talking about restructuring Who will be the biggest beneficiaries, how you think the ?how do you re-evaluate the three telecom operators competitiveness?

    Chen Yun-hong: telecom reorganization is certainly the biggest winner in China Telecom, the whole business licence, C acquisition of the China Telecom network in the shortest possible time, have a large number of new business options, particularly in the lack of profit mode mobile Internet circumstances, China Telecom based on the integration of fixed mobile broadband networks, China Mobile changed enough to make the development of the Internet operators do not make money situation, and a variety of new businesses, new technologies, the introduction of new services have become a stronger capital market of China Telecom, artillery Red Securities The basis of the market, China Telecom have sufficient conditions to become China's telecommunications market in 2008 incremental business of the fastest growing companies.

    1-2 years after the reorganization: China Telecom's comprehensive competitiveness is the key to enhancing business tied up and boost the confidence of its comprehensive competitiveness gap still exists more mobile; China Mobile's comprehensive competitiveness no substantive effect, but will be competitive advantage Weakening; Unicom faces new corporate culture integration and business integration dilemma, its competitive edge in the short term be buried;

    3-5 years after the reorganization: China Telecom's comprehensive competitiveness is the key to quickly upgrade industrial integration, based on the F-FMC derived from the integration of operational cost advantages, enhance the efficient use of assets, the consolidated financial indicators improved in terms of their overall competitiveness will be Beyond China Mobile, China Mobile due to the efficient use of assets of the downturn and the lack of bandwidth resources development will face bottlenecks, the new profit growth point depends on overseas business acquisition and development of the new interchange upgrade the competitiveness of enterprises depends on key factors Integration of the progress and effectiveness, introduce strategic investors from the funds to achieve the level of management and other aspects of the improvement and upgrading.

    Sohu IT: how you treat such as equipment manufacturers to the reorganization, SP members of the industrial chain, and so on the impact of ?

    Chen Yun-hong: reorganization, the carrier will focus on investment projects increased 3 G, data and optical communications infrastructure investment, customized mobile phones, data cards, home terminals, such as investment and procurement, which will mobile communications equipment manufacturers, optical communication equipment , Terminal equipment manufacturers face a new round of investment opportunity, ZTE is China's largest mobile telecommunications equipment provider, CDMA market share exceeds 30 percent, the follow-up is expected to increase to between 35-40 percent, TD-SCDMA down nearly tender 50 percent, is expected to have continued to maintain the 40-45 percent market share, WCDMA overseas have access to great breakthroughs, is expected to be 15 percent domestic share, from the optical communication, ZTE's market share in China after the Huawei - The second, with telecommunications and new Unicom increased bandwidth infrastructure of continuous investment, ZTE will benefit from them, from the terminal, ZTE is China's largest mobile phone, IPTV set-top boxes, DSL modem equipment provider, after the reorganization, New operators will increase the demand for more customized equipment, ZTE will be the biggest beneficiaries, in general, the current round of ZTE Telecom is the biggest beneficiaries of the reorganization, and our concern about the proposed optical communications equipment manufacturers flames and RF communication devices leading Wuhan Where Valley.

    After the reorganization, all business operators face of the industry chain integration and the re-organize, find new value and profit model. We believe that the next few years, the mobile Internet industry will face a major reshuffle, the advantages of CP / SP operators will realize win-win cooperation, the second-rate or third-rate CP / SP will gradually withdraw from the market or operators from the capital to the business integration and control .

    Sohu IT: three ministries notice to encourage the acquisition of China Telecom China Unicom's CDMA network (including the assets and users), you think of China Unicom's network C how reasonable valuation ?

    Chen Yun-hong: C net net assets belong to the SAC, there are significant differences between the two sides, the direct transfer of power to the SAC, while the value of belonging to China Telecom, China Netcom on the compensatory costs, requires both sides to a negotiated solution, At the same time, the value of compensation, should be vested in Unicom after the reorganization of listed companies, rather than company.

    Customer value mainly to China Unicom's existing network users C, based on the value of customer ARPU, grade and type of customer, to pay costs, customer credit, and many other elements of analysis and evaluation, the magnitude of value to its customers to calculate.

    However, the present value is difficult to calculate clear, in the process of acquisition of C network, if only to China Unicom, the number of registered C network, will be due to sleep households, ultra-low calls households and businesses a single households, families and other bills in arrears The existence of many invalid, so that China's telecommunications network due to the value of C Xugao, and the payment should not pay for the acquisition costs. At present, China Telecom and China Unicom between the net acquisition of the C exchange, the biggest obstacle has come from the customer value calculations.

    + Net acquisition costs, including compensation for the value of the person concerned has put China Unicom "The acquisition of C network, needs at least 100 billion price" and assessment of all sectors of the forecast cost of the acquisition, roughly between 100 million in 800-1200. It is worth noting that, whether it is 80 billion or 120 billion, the key is to look at what proportion of customers accounted for. At present, China Telecom and China Unicom in the calculation of the net on the basic differences do not exist, and in customer value on the great differences.

    From the strength of the Chinese telecom operators and mobile services in the market advance, if the value of compensation in the 300-400 billion, China Telecom have the ability to pay, if more than 40 billion, China Telecom will be in the market rating, the stock market performance and year-end There are some earnings risk, but if China Telecom took over the C network, to ensure that customers do not have been lost, rapid access to new customers and CDMA1.X rapid expansion and improvement, the risks can be eliminated, if the value of compensation Higher than the 50 billion or even higher, at the risk of China Telecom to continue for more than three years, and its wholly owned business licences will also greatly reduced the advantage, China Mobile monopolize the world situation will be difficult to change, reorganization of the significance of the loss. Clearly, the value of the excessive compensation, not only China Telecom can not accept, can not accept the decision-making level.

    Sohu IT: China Mobile shares a series of setbacks recently, you look at how the capital market reaction ? You look at how the reorganization to the impact of mobile ?

    Chen Yun-hong: the short run, the state will be introduced to the vulnerable carriers of the strong policy support and operators of non-symmetry control, the company will have a negative impact on stock prices, which have been fully reflected in the recent sharp decline in stock prices; in Long-term perspective, China Mobile will be in three to five years in the size of the user, operating income, operating profit, and so maintain the leading position in mobile value-added business development and innovation capacity, and strategic resources of the investment will maintain a leading edge, China Mobile to provide long-term good.

    Sohu IT: China Unicom's GSM network and China Netcom will take what kind of merger, you think that the most feasible way ?

    Chen Yun-hong: Group merged to form a new Unicom Group, China Netcom Liantonghongchou convertible merged to form a new Liantonghongchou red-chip companies, the new Liantonghongchou company or return to the A-share IPO convertible A-share merger of Unicom; Options: to market value as the main basis, we expect, 1.45 shares Liantonghongchou-for-1 stock Netcom red chips in, and pay approximately 32 to 4.8 billion in cash to compensate for differences in income Netcom shareholders, if the percentage change in the convertible, Cash payments will also change.

    Sohu IT: Telecom reform programme due to the reorganization of the company involved, the network transfer of assets, mergers and other issues listed companies, you expect the implementation of the restructuring process needs more time-consuming ?

    Chen Yun-hong: acquisition of the CDMA network of China Telecom, the fastest in the end of July, the slowest within one month after the Olympic Games;

    The merger of Unicom and China Netcom relatively complex process, the fastest 2-3 months, may slow more than six months, the longer the merger process for both China Unicom and China Netcom Corporation business development or integration of the disadvantaged.

    Sohu IT: Some experts have proposed that in the reorganization process, the need to avoid corruption and the loss of state assets, how do you see this point of view ?

    Chen Yun-hong: links from the acquisition, if China Telecom to pay China Unicom's CDMA business value too high, we believe that the loss of state assets;

    Liantonghongchou from the acquisition of Netcom red chips, the reorganization of red chips East, and the domestic circulation of shareholders, such as multiple voting by the SASAC, the relative transparency of its operations and the market, we believe that the risk of loss of state assets less likely.

 

About us | Jobs | Product | Contact us
GuangZhou Exun Computer Technology Crop.
Copyright@2004-2008